Breakable-Heartache
0x3896a566a86036bd4764c08b3ec6e2d400a2ece6
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
128
Open notional
$3.1K
Total PnL
$-8.2K
Realised
$1.6K
Win rate
78%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 128- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
1210 shares @ 46.5¢·now 53.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$647.35
$84.15
- NO
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
650 shares @ 62.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$471.25
$68.25
- NO
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
500 shares @ 57.9¢·now 75.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$377.70
$88.00
- YES
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
7307 shares @ 23.3¢·now 5.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$369.03
$-1.3K
- NO
US x China Military clash before 2027?
296 shares @ 88.8¢·now 95.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$283.37
$20.57
- YES
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
400 shares @ 34.1¢·now 48.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$192.60
$56.22
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 84.0¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$192.30
$24.30
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
125 shares @ 80.0¢·now 95.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$119.50
$19.50
- NO
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
300 shares @ 38.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.50
$-13.50
- NO
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
100 shares @ 32.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$90.50
$58.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 30, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?$8.10Jul 28, 22:38 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$10.80Jul 25, 11:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$15.11Jul 25, 11:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$19.00Jul 25, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$9.50Jul 25, 07:28 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$98.00Jul 24, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$28.08Jul 24, 16:56 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$377.97Jul 23, 17:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$570.00Jul 20, 18:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
75/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
36 closed markets, 78% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $68.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 22:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.