Both-Moustache
0x39d0f1dca6fb7e5514858c1a337724a426764fe8
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$70.8K
Total PnL
$11.2K
Realised
$2.4K
Win rate
73%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
21802 shares @ 69.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.7K
$1.5K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
14312 shares @ 67.8¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.0K
$3.2K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
8381 shares @ 76.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$6.6K
$242.87
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
5623 shares @ 79.4¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.3K
$848.01
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
4821 shares @ 80.9¢·now 79.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.8K
$-93.50
- NO
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
3354 shares @ 74.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.2K
$719.54
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
4595 shares @ 62.5¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.2K
$319.65
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
3700 shares @ 69.5¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.1K
$-442.42
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
2008 shares @ 65.6¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.9K
$596.54
- YES
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1687 shares @ 62.3¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.4K
$342.49
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$67.40Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$67.40Jul 29, 06:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$2.8KJul 29, 06:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$82.00Jul 29, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$84.00Jul 29, 06:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$158.00Jul 29, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$68.20Jul 29, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$133.08Jul 29, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$220.00Jul 29, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$2.04Jul 29, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$14.11Jul 29, 02:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$66.80Jul 29, 02:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$68.00Jul 29, 02:09 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$9.38Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?$128.00Jul 29, 00:34 UTC
- YIELD$0.08Jul 29, 00:16 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$1.11Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$9.75Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$182.00Jul 28, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$18.61Jul 28, 22:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
73% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $191.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 11:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.