Unwieldy-Counsel
0x3abffa6d0b8a22423a66064ca458499225feb143
Wallet digest
Activity score
61/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
184
Open notional
$2.3K
Total PnL
$-8.6K
Realised
$-5.7K
Win rate
52%
56 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 184- NO
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
643 shares @ 90.5¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$625.64
$43.74
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
1120 shares @ 34.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$498.40
$115.87
- NO
Will Lee Zeldin leave the Trump administration before 2027?
560 shares @ 93.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$414.40
$-106.40
- NO
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
745 shares @ 52.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$376.43
$-11.18
- NO
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
365 shares @ 85.8¢·now 77.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$283.79
$-29.41
- NO
Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
60 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$60.00
$3.00
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
69 shares @ 37.7¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$48.33
$22.47
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
98 shares @ 57.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.35
$-49.33
- YES
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
26 shares @ 28.0¢·now 24.1¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$6.25
$-1.03
- YES
Will Parti Québécois win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
5 shares @ 67.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$3.08
$-0.27
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$0.11Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?$0.30Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?$0.63Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$0.79Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMTucker Carlson federally charged?$1.00Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX's market cap be between $700B and $800B at market close on IPO day?$2.00Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026?$235.32Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- REDEEMKBO: Lotte Giants vs. NC Dinos$0.61Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?$1.66Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?$30.71Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMTulsi Gabbard out by June 30?$100.00Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur by April 30, 2026?$181.09Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by June 30?$222.78Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by May 31?$355.79Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tommy Tuberville win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?$657.00Jun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?$1.4KJun 11, 00:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cason Wallace lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?$5.25Apr 15, 08:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?$26.84Apr 15, 08:38 UTC
- REDEEMJD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$807.52Apr 15, 08:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trae Young lead the NBA in assists during the 2025–26 NBA season?$955.08Apr 15, 08:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
52% win rate over 56 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
56 closed markets, 52% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 6, 15:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 06:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 56 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.