Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026?
Probability
70¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.6pp
24h Vol
$224.94
Liquidity
$2.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.2¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5984.6h
- 15:22SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 73¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.9pp
to 67¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.2pp
to 67¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 68¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 68¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 68¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.6pp
to 68¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 67¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Paramount (directly or through a subsidiary) acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Resolution will be based on official company communications and regulatory filings from Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery (or any successor entities), supplemented as needed by a consensus of reporting from major reputable news outlets.
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (5.2¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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