0x3b05914870e94b634046ef78748b05ba8c7abc1c
0x3b05914870e94b634046ef78748b05ba8c7abc1c
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
62
Open notional
$30.81
Total PnL
$-558.86
Realised
$-47.15
Win rate
0%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 62- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
12 shares @ 65.2¢·now 67.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.71
$0.21
- YES
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
15 shares @ 61.2¢·now 44.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$6.55
$-2.45
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
4 shares @ 73.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.56
$0.55
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
6 shares @ 70.3¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$3.23
$-1.27
- NO
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
2 shares @ 63.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$1.95
$0.45
- NO
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 88.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.59
$0.09
- NO
Israeli forces enter Choukine by July 31?
2 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.51
$0.01
- NO
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
2 shares @ 82.7¢·now 83.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.51
$0.01
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
2 shares @ 95.4¢·now 95.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.51
$0.01
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
2 shares @ 77.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.23
$-0.27
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$1.50Jul 20, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$1.50Jul 20, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by August 15?$1.50Jul 20, 14:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$4.55Jul 20, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.50Jul 20, 09:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.50Jul 20, 09:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$1.50Jul 20, 09:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?$4.53Jul 20, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.50Jul 17, 09:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$1.82Jul 17, 02:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$1.50Jul 16, 12:35 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$1.23Jul 16, 12:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?$1.50Jul 16, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?$1.50Jul 16, 02:52 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by December 31?$3.59Jul 16, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup?$1.50Jul 15, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?$1.50Jul 14, 23:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.99Jul 14, 23:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.55Jul 14, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.55Jul 14, 21:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 14:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.