0x3b256e2103ea327be0625f5b85e1e89ccdfcc15a
0x3b256e2103ea327be0625f5b85e1e89ccdfcc15a
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
72
Open notional
$944.49
Total PnL
$-105.34
Realised
$16.29
Win rate
61%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 72- YES
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
45 shares @ 44.0¢·now 72.0¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$32.73
$12.73
- NO
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?
51 shares @ 39.0¢·now 61.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$31.54
$11.54
- NO
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
93 shares @ 21.6¢·now 31.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.79
$8.79
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
40 shares @ 50.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$28.20
$8.20
- YES
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?
29 shares @ 68.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$27.79
$7.79
- NO
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16?
29 shares @ 70.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$27.19
$7.19
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
33 shares @ 81.7¢·now 82.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.93
$0.25
- YES
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 64.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2027$26.25
$6.25
- YES
Anthropic IPO before 2027?
31 shares @ 65.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$26.15
$6.15
- NO
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31?
27 shares @ 73.0¢·now 95.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$26.03
$6.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$24.69Aug 18, 18:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 18, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.34Aug 17, 22:31 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.01Aug 17, 22:15 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.04Aug 17, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.01Aug 17, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.01Aug 17, 22:14 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.01Aug 17, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.09Aug 17, 21:54 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.09Aug 17, 21:53 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.09Aug 17, 21:45 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.06Aug 17, 21:30 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.48Aug 17, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$0.04Aug 17, 19:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.28Aug 17, 17:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yen Bailey be the FL-02 Democratic nominee?$20.50Aug 17, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$20.30Aug 17, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?$20.20Aug 17, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$0.61Aug 17, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?$0.05Aug 17, 14:34 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
61% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 37/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $4.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 18:02 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 18, 18:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.