Tense-Contingency
0x3be0ec10d02d05614f8569a2d9efda02010a9836
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$267.95
Total PnL
$-182.24
Realised
$-1.41
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
150 shares @ 70.0¢·now 69.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$104.74
$-0.22
- NO
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
300 shares @ 28.0¢·now 16.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$48.00
$-36.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?
50 shares @ 80.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp May 18, 2026$47.75
$7.75
- NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
50 shares @ 29.8¢·now 30.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.08
$0.17
- YES
Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch before 2027?
200 shares @ 24.5¢·now 7.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.80
$-34.20
- YES
Ebola case in the US by June 30?
40 shares @ 11.5¢·now 30.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.00
$7.40
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 in May?
50 shares @ 29.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$7.75
$-6.75
- YES
World Cup game relocated away from Mexico?
88 shares @ 14.1¢·now 8.2¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$7.22
$-5.18
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?
100 shares @ 15.5¢·now 4.5¢·exp May 18, 2026$4.50
$-11.00
- YES
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
40 shares @ 9.5¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.40
$-0.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$34.95May 18, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$34.97May 18, 08:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$35.05May 18, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$14.90May 18, 07:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$7.50May 18, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$40.00May 18, 07:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026?$8.00May 18, 06:46 UTC
- REWARD$2.03May 18, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$13.14May 17, 23:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$16.99May 17, 16:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola pandemic in 2026?$1.80May 17, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$0.52May 17, 15:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?$16.41May 17, 15:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola pandemic in 2026?$2.00May 17, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$2.20May 17, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEbola case in the US by June 30?$2.40May 17, 13:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May?$16.50May 16, 14:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.39May 16, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$3.87May 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May?$14.00May 15, 17:26 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $23.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 11, 06:40 UTC
- Last active
- May 18, 08:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".