Constant-Snowplow
0x3e5630959499c5b5e55aceeeeae7446933d335d5
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
57
Open notional
$279.07
Total PnL
$7.73
Realised
$34.41
Win rate
86%
21 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 57- NO
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?
31 shares @ 62.7¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.57
$4.93
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
74 shares @ 20.9¢·now 26.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.59
$4.16
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18 shares @ 72.3¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.61
$2.56
- YES
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?
45 shares @ 56.3¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.94
$-10.56
- YES
Iran successfully targets shipping on June 26?
1000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$14.50
$12.35
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
21 shares @ 58.4¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$14.28
$2.28
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
16 shares @ 67.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.14
$3.68
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
19 shares @ 73.4¢·now 64.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$12.20
$-1.80
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
12 shares @ 50.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$12.12
$5.98
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.87
$0.87
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026?$0.50Jul 1, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026?$0.01Jul 1, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be fewer than 1 North Korea test in June 2026?$0.05Jul 1, 15:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Novyi Donbas by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 11:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 11:32 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 1, 11:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 1, 11:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 11:26 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?$0.96Jul 1, 11:17 UTC
- REDEEMTrump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 10:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?$0.00Jul 1, 10:18 UTC
- MERGEWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$10.35Jul 1, 10:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?$0.05Jul 1, 07:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?$0.00Jul 1, 07:15 UTC
- REDEEMPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 06:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?$1.32Jul 1, 06:43 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 06:43 UTC
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 06:40 UTC
- REDEEMIran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?$0.00Jul 1, 06:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
46/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 21 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $0.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 03:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 15:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 21 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.