ScienceMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?

Probability

37¢

-0.5pp

24h

-6.5pp

24h Vol

$51.84

Liquidity

$2.0K

Probability (last 7 days)

-5.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:15

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

1
Down 7pp over 24h
Now 37¢; -0.5pp in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
3
Wide spread — 5.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 5986.7h
LOW
13:15Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5987h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
13:00Price
Probability down -10.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
12:00Price
Probability down -7.0pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
10:00Price
Probability down -10.5pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
09:00Price
Probability down -10.5pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
08:00Price
Probability down -8.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
06:00Price
Probability down -3.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
05:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
03:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 36¢
MEDIUM
02:00Price
Probability down -6.0pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
00:00Price
Probability down -7.5pp
to 38¢
MEDIUM
23:00Price
Probability down -8.0pp
to 37¢
MEDIUM
20:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 42¢
MEDIUM
18:00Price
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
MEDIUM
17:00Price
Probability down -5.0pp
to 43¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 3.0pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 40¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 43¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -5.0pp
to 42¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability up 3.5pp
to 47¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -8.0pp
to 39¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -6.5pp
to 41¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -7.5pp
to 41¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -4.5pp
to 44¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -6.5pp
to 44¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -3.5pp
to 45¢
MEDIUM
3d agoPrice
Probability down -4.0pp
to 45¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventHow many SpaceX launches in 2026?

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Dec 31, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket