Cumbersome-Establishment
0x40a2be2a093b9f09d1bba409d23b99fc178f94cc
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$191.25
Total PnL
$-34.98
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026?
100 shares @ 89.7¢·now 76.3¢·exp May 16, 2026$76.30
$-13.40
- NO
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026?
10 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.6¢·exp May 16, 2026$9.96
$0.01
- NO
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp May 16, 2026$9.96
$0.05
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 19?
10 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp May 19, 2026$9.94
$0.04
- NO
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?
10 shares @ 97.6¢·now 94.9¢·exp May 16, 2026$9.49
$-0.27
- NO
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?
10 shares @ 94.0¢·now 94.3¢·exp May 16, 2026$9.42
$0.03
- NO
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30?
10 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$9.04
$0.15
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 19?
10 shares @ 98.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$8.70
$-1.10
- NO
Will France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?
10 shares @ 62.0¢·now 82.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$8.19
$2.00
- NO
Will Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?
10 shares @ 58.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp May 16, 2026$7.95
$2.15
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Moldova win Eurovision 2026?$3.54May 15, 08:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moldova win Eurovision 2026?$6.36May 15, 07:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Croatia win Eurovision 2026?$9.94May 15, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?$9.76May 15, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on May 19?$9.90May 15, 04:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 19?$9.81May 15, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel win Eurovision 2026?$9.42May 15, 04:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on May 17?$4.95May 15, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on May 17?$4.95May 15, 04:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?$7.61May 15, 03:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?$19.99May 15, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$5.50May 14, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Denmark be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?$5.80May 14, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: BNK FEARX vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2$0.00May 14, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMDota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B$20.00May 14, 17:19 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: LNG Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana$0.00May 14, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$4.56May 14, 16:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Greece be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$6.80May 14, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill France be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026?$1.63May 14, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Australia win Eurovision 2026?$89.70May 14, 14:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $8.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 05:57 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 08:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".