Organic-Mandolin
0x418614b0d795855b5467674c88d271e5a0f5ee77
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$343.77
Total PnL
$-151.92
Realised
$0.86
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- NO
Kash Patel out by June 30?
128 shares @ 39.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$121.15
$71.15
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
57 shares @ 44.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$29.83
$4.83
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
120 shares @ 20.8¢·now 22.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$27.58
$2.58
- YES
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
36 shares @ 55.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$24.55
$4.55
- YES
Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2027?
35 shares @ 57.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$21.40
$1.40
- YES
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
89 shares @ 16.8¢·now 16.4¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$14.60
$-0.40
- YES
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
86 shares @ 17.5¢·now 16.7¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$14.27
$-0.73
- YES
Will Jensen Huang be 3rd richest person on December 31?
55 shares @ 18.3¢·now 24.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.17
$3.17
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
55 shares @ 27.3¢·now 23.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$12.77
$-2.23
- YES
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
44 shares @ 34.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.91
$-3.09
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jun 14, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 11, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$25.56Jun 10, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)?$10.32Jun 10, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw?$10.24Jun 10, 17:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?$22.73Jun 10, 14:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 10, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 9, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 8, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 7, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 5, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering?$10.24Jun 4, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s market cap be between $500B and $750B at market close on IPO day?$10.38Jun 4, 19:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX raise between $90B and $100B in its IPO?$10.35Jun 4, 19:54 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 3, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 2, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $16.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 00:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.