0x45bdb2d5b71e1b83691a03b295b46171551faf96
0x45bdb2d5b71e1b83691a03b295b46171551faf96
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$594.60
Total PnL
$-258.58
Realised
$-109.56
Win rate
7%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?
130 shares @ 89.4¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$119.09
$2.74
- NO
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
69 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$69.43
$2.79
- YES
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?
69 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$69.42
$0.07
- NO
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?
67 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$67.14
$0.59
- NO
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
77 shares @ 82.8¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$64.88
$0.90
- NO
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?
56 shares @ 97.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$55.77
$1.66
- YES
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?
319 shares @ 19.8¢·now 16.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$51.06
$-12.16
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
248 shares @ 14.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.91
$6.20
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
516 shares @ 5.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.35
$1.50
- YES
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
1877 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$15.96
$-79.10
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$2.10Jul 6, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$1.65Jul 6, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.45Jul 6, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.77Jul 6, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?$2.10Jul 6, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?$2.10Jul 6, 19:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.77Jul 4, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.45Jul 4, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$1.66Jul 4, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?$2.10Jul 4, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$2.10Jul 4, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?$2.10Jul 4, 06:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$24.40Jun 28, 01:20 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?$2.07Jun 26, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?$1.42Jun 26, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$1.28Jun 26, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$2.07Jun 26, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$2.29Jun 26, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?$1.64Jun 26, 08:37 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?$2.27Jun 26, 08:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 26, 08:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 6, 19:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.