Improbable-Documentary
0x4728d8377019661b41a2fdca0da55c1dd1e06426
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
91
Open notional
$269.3K
Total PnL
$-38.3K
Realised
$21.7K
Win rate
47%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 91- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
180000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 85.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$154.3K
$64.3K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
180000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 14.2¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$25.6K
$-64.4K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
22250 shares @ 78.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$18.4K
$1.0K
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?
11150 shares @ 94.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.8K
$317.79
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
10000 shares @ 87.5¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$9.9K
$1.2K
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
14464 shares @ 45.9¢·now 50.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$7.3K
$662.27
- NO
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?
7000 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp May 29, 2026$7.0K
$304.50
- NO
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
8301 shares @ 78.6¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.6K
$32.70
- YES
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?
4444 shares @ 53.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.6K
$1.3K
- NO
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?
6387 shares @ 88.5¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$3.6K
$-2.0K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUY Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$2.7KJun 13, 11:28 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?$1.2KJun 13, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?$271.95Jun 13, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?$0.64Jun 13, 10:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?$9.82Jun 13, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$1.4KJun 13, 10:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?$3.0KJun 13, 10:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$10.00Jun 13, 10:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$1.00Jun 13, 10:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$5.00Jun 13, 10:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$21.00Jun 13, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$80.00Jun 13, 10:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$308.00Jun 13, 09:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$12.00Jun 13, 09:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$7.70Jun 13, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?$42.07Jun 13, 09:47 UTC
- MERGEWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$15.0KJun 13, 09:05 UTC
- REWARD$0.76Jun 13, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$19.14Jun 13, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$62.58Jun 13, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $451.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 12, 15:47 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 11:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.