Improbable-Documentary
0x4728d8377019661b41a2fdca0da55c1dd1e06426
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$133.1K
Total PnL
$-90.0K
Realised
$25.4K
Win rate
53%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 88.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$88.3K
$38.4K
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
22250 shares @ 78.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$19.0K
$1.7K
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 11.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.7K
$-38.4K
- NO
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?
10000 shares @ 87.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$10.0K
$1.2K
- NO
Discord IPO before 2027?
4465 shares @ 35.9¢·now 64.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$1.3K
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1563 shares @ 66.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$883.15
$-148.68
- YES
Kash Patel out by December 31?
513 shares @ 76.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$161.74
$-228.49
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
34435 shares @ 54.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$120.52
$-18.8K
- YES
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
2687 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$18.81
$-599.27
- YES
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?
489 shares @ 78.0¢·now 3.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$14.66
$-366.31
Recent activity
- YIELD$10.69Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$10.68Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$10.68Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$10.68Jul 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$10.69Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$10.68Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$10.68Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$10.66Jul 21, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?$4.5KJul 20, 14:48 UTC
- YIELD$10.66Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$10.67Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$10.66Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$10.65Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$10.63Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$10.63Jul 15, 00:16 UTC
- REWARD$12.31Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$10.63Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$10.63Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$10.63Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$10.63Jul 11, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
53% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $167.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.