Grim-Bowtie
0x477d1ff1b2a3b61c67803e024b3c0140f81955a9
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
69
Open notional
$123.85
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$51.94
Win rate
81%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 69- NO
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
96 shares @ 45.3¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$47.29
$4.01
- YES
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
336 shares @ 28.5¢·now 5.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$16.78
$-78.90
- NO
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
18 shares @ 80.8¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.49
$1.34
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$14.73
$-15.34
- YES
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
85 shares @ 29.8¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.10
$-12.11
- YES
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026?
60 shares @ 10.0¢·now 5.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.12
$-2.88
- YES
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
60 shares @ 7.5¢·now 5.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.97
$-1.53
- YES
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?
60 shares @ 11.0¢·now 4.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.88
$-3.72
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
43 shares @ 78.2¢·now 5.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.52
$-31.10
- YES
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.75% or lower before 2027?
87 shares @ 49.6¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.00
$-41.19
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$0.88Jul 19, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$1.80Jul 19, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$2.25Jul 19, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$0.76Jul 16, 14:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$0.11Jul 16, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$0.11Jul 16, 13:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$1.82Jul 16, 13:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$4.06Jul 9, 21:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$1.97Jul 9, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$0.13Jul 9, 15:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$3.30Jul 7, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$0.76Jul 7, 23:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$1.16Jul 7, 20:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$0.60Jul 7, 17:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$2.10Jul 7, 17:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?$4.77Jul 7, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$9.18Jun 25, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$9.18Jun 25, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$10.20Jun 25, 10:35 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$17.50Jun 25, 10:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
81% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 5, 14:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 21:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.