Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?
Probability
8¢
1h
+0.3pp
24h
+1.7pp
24h Vol
$53.35
Liquidity
$14.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+1.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 2pp over 24h
Now 8¢; +0.3pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 7.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.1h
- 14:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 13¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.3pp
to 9¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.1pp
to 9¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.8pp
to 9¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.6pp
to 10¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.6pp
to 11¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.1pp
to 17¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.3pp
to 8¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 9¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.1pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 12.8pp
to 17¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.1pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.6pp
to 10¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (7.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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