Knowledgeable-Pneumonia
0x4a137fa208741607257ea6dcc45720f13a065dbf
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
28
Open notional
$7.48
Total PnL
$-22.74
Realised
$4.34
Win rate
13%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will the AAVE TVL go below $10B in 2026?
5 shares @ 53.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$3.48
$0.82
- NO
Altcoin market cap dip to $150B before 2027?
7 shares @ 15.0¢·now 38.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.66
$1.61
- YES
Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch?
2 shares @ 60.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.36
$-0.64
- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
1 shares @ 71.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.29
$-0.71
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 63.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.28
$-2.47
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
6 shares @ 18.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.22
$-0.86
- YES
Extended FDV above $1B one day after launch?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.20
$-1.30
- YES
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Spain win on 2026-07-19?$1.03Jul 16, 09:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?$0.44Jul 6, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?$1.48Jul 6, 19:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw?$1.33Jun 29, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw?$1.63Jun 25, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?$1.02Jun 21, 20:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tunisia win on 2026-06-21?$1.08Jun 20, 12:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?$5.00Jun 20, 05:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?$1.28Jun 19, 11:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June?$1.16Jun 19, 11:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.04Jun 2, 15:25 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$5.65Jun 1, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$1.03May 28, 19:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?$1.30May 22, 19:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?$1.01May 21, 21:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?$0.32May 18, 22:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?$1.04May 18, 10:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?$0.54May 18, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure?$0.50May 18, 10:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?$1.01May 14, 17:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 26, 22:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 09:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.