0x4a74ae9378d92f25a9add91718efba25a3317a5c
0x4a74ae9378d92f25a9add91718efba25a3317a5c
Wallet digest
Activity score
92/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
39
Open notional
$84.34
Total PnL
$10.84
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 39- YES
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in July?
51 shares @ 1.9¢·now 34.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$17.74
$16.74
- NO
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026?
11 shares @ 88.3¢·now 87.5¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$9.91
$-0.09
- NO
Will Anthropic announce permanent paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 24, 2026?
7 shares @ 58.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$4.21
$0.21
- NO
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 98.6¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.99
$-0.01
- YES
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?
12 shares @ 25.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.94
$-0.06
- NO
USMCA extended in 2026?
4 shares @ 67.0¢·now 64.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.87
$-0.13
- NO
Will NYC have between 5 and 6 inches of precipitation in July?
7 shares @ 61.0¢·now 43.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.82
$-1.18
- YES
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31?
7 shares @ 35.0¢·now 33.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.39
$-0.11
- YES
FDA approves Viatris' low-dose estrogen weekly patch?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.38
$-0.62
- NO
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
6 shares @ 31.0¢·now 31.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.05
$0.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Congress override any veto in 2026?$1.04Jul 15, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Smithsonian Women’s History Museum become law this year?$1.00Jul 15, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the SELF DRIVE Act become law this year?$1.04Jul 15, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYSupreme Court vacancy in 2026?$1.01Jul 15, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYT-Mobile US & SpaceX merger/acquisition announced in 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lucid announce bankruptcy before 2027?$1.01Jul 15, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMPS x Intesa Sanpaolo merger/acquisition announced in 2026?$1.04Jul 15, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?$1.01Jul 15, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?$2.06Jul 15, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYSCOTUS grants Trump Birthright Citizenship Rehearing by December 31?$1.00Jul 15, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GameStop acquire eBay?$1.01Jul 15, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill C3.ai announce bankruptcy before 2027?$2.01Jul 15, 19:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any state enact a data center moratorium by December 31?$1.03Jul 15, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?$2.00Jul 15, 19:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus vaccine in 2026? $2.00Jul 15, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYFDA approves Retatrutide this year?$2.01Jul 15, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jerome Powell join an AI company in 2026?$1.00Jul 15, 19:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?$2.01Jul 15, 19:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US House pass the NDAA by July 31?$1.02Jul 15, 18:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2500 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$2.01Jul 15, 18:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 15, 15:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 19:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.