Complicated-Frog
0x4aab7c3756b4f5581abb5f846dee034e5276cf43
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
122
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-464.63
Realised
$52.10
Win rate
64%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 122- YES
Will "Wuthering Heights" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
113 shares @ 21.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-23.83
- YES
Will Trump say "Rigged Election" this week? (February 15)
100 shares @ 49.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-49.10
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 11, 2026?
96 shares @ 4.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.74
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 9, 2026?
88 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.11
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 30, 2026?
81 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.71
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 24, 2026?
79 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.12
- NO
Will Train Dreams win Best Feature at the 41st Film Independent Spirit Awards?
68 shares @ 49.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026$0.00
$-33.47
- YES
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch?
60 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-2.14
- YES
Will Grok 4.20 be released on March 6, 2026?
60 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
- NO
Will "GOAT" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?
60 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-4.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam?$0.02Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jennifer Lee Jackson win Top Chef Season 23?$0.02Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLTaylor Swift pregnant before marriage?$0.05Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Day Anaїs Joseph win Top Chef Season 23?$0.03Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027?$0.08Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Justin Tootla win Top Chef Season 23?$0.04Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Free Patriotic Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?$0.15Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLHuddle FDV above $100M one day after launch?$0.03Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%?$0.10Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?$0.19Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?$0.13Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?$0.14Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLAnother critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?$0.20Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US federal government take a stake in Rigetti Computing, Inc.?$0.07Mar 17, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Carleigh Beriont be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?$0.30Mar 17, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Matthew Smith be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?$0.05Mar 17, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23?$0.29Mar 17, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Railbird self-certify sports event contracts by March 31, 2026?$0.50Mar 17, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash rate after the May Meeting?$0.48Mar 17, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loopscale launch a token by June 30, 2026?$0.44Mar 17, 03:09 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
76/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.
42 closed markets, 64% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 17, 03:08 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 17, 03:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.