Will Matthew Smith be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Probability
0¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.1pp
24h Vol
$150.88
Liquidity
$8.0K
Probability (last 7 days)
-0.2pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $8.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 729.2h
- 14:46SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 729h with open resolution ambiguity.
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
Related Markets
14- 6¢-0.4pp
Will Abraham Enriquez be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Politics · Vol $10.30
- 0¢-0.1pp
Will Donald May be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Politics · Vol $510.21
- 91¢+0.4pp
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Politics · Vol $3.61
- 0¢-0.3pp
Will Ryan Zink be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Politics · Vol $243.74
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate A be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate I be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate J be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 50¢0.0pp
Will Candidate K be the Republican Nominee for TX-19?
Politics · Vol $0.00
- 0¢-0.2pp
Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?
Politics · Vol $1.9M
- 3¢-1.0pp
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $642.8K
- 0¢-0.2pp
Trump out as President by April 30?
Politics · Vol $595.0K
- 5¢0.0pp
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $482.9K
- 0¢+0.2pp
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Politics · Vol $371.7K
- 1¢0.0pp
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Politics · Vol $344.7K
Market Description
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 26, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).