Unsteady-Enjoyment
0x4b2d0bbb55b0f92e30edbf2e5f944b089a6af0d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
54
Open notional
$60.6K
Total PnL
$-4.0K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 54- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
19362 shares @ 90.1¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.5K
$76.71
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
10904 shares @ 79.8¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.3K
$-358.24
- NO
Trump out as President before 2027?
4708 shares @ 86.1¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.4K
$300.21
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
4444 shares @ 81.0¢·now 95.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$4.2K
$639.94
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
4444 shares @ 94.5¢·now 93.3¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.1K
$-51.11
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
3333 shares @ 89.7¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$-107.12
- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
3332 shares @ 81.8¢·now 77.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$2.6K
$-143.25
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026?
2254 shares @ 89.0¢·now 95.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$2.2K
$149.85
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
2464 shares @ 81.2¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$2.1K
$107.14
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
1735 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.7K
$83.04
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$3.0KJul 28, 18:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.47Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$245.79Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.47Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$61.82Jul 27, 00:04 UTC
- REWARD$2.15Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$8.09Jul 26, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$154.00Jul 26, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$16.67Jul 26, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$3.85Jul 26, 18:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$158.89Jul 26, 16:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$5.39Jul 26, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?$1.0KJul 26, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?$310.83Jul 26, 15:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.47Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.3KJul 25, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.0KJul 25, 22:51 UTC
- YIELD$0.47Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$1.2KJul 24, 16:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$1.5KJul 24, 16:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
35 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
0%
Sample
low
1 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
$5.7K · 100% of recorded whale volume
Recorded market concentration
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $484.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.