0x4bb55e8adeeb53867d32d249f91c2340a4b77ab9
0x4bb55e8adeeb53867d32d249f91c2340a4b77ab9
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$87.23
Total PnL
$-57.09
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Will José Mário Vaz win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$9.03
$-0.00
- NO
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.8¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$9.02
$-0.01
- NO
Will FLING win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$8.97
$-0.06
- NO
Will the National Movement of Amhara (NaMA) win the most seats in the 2026 Ethiopian general election?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$8.80
$0.00
- NO
Will Baciro Djá win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 96.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$8.70
$-0.33
- NO
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 96.3¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$8.70
$-0.33
- NO
Will Chip Keating win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
9 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$8.54
$0.02
- NO
Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency?
8 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$8.33
$0.00
- NO
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by more than 15%?
8 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$8.29
$-0.08
- NO
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
9 shares @ 99.9¢·now 90.6¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$8.19
$-0.84
Recent activity
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs DFX Peek (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A June Group C$8.61Jul 11, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$8.52Jul 6, 17:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$8.44Jul 6, 06:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 29 - July 5?$8.37Jul 5, 23:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$8.37Jul 5, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Antonio Maíllo be the next President of Andalusia following the regional election?$8.86Jul 5, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$8.36Jul 4, 23:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency?$8.33Jul 4, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill CZ post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$8.37Jul 3, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$8.37Jul 3, 18:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?$8.38Jul 3, 17:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill CZ post 20-39 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$8.36Jul 3, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026?$8.36Jul 3, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel annex any territory by June 30?$8.36Jul 3, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Spencer Pratt concede by July 2?$8.37Jul 3, 03:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran successfully targets shipping on July 1?$8.35Jul 1, 23:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jordan sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$8.38Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Egypt sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$8.38Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding?$8.39Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine election called by June 30, 2026?$8.40Jul 1, 06:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
24 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 24
- Avg trade size
- $8.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 19:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 11, 18:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.