Smooth-Casement
0x4c3ffdb83902929a25778ff7b28da39d599232b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$70.62
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$8.67
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Eyüpspor: Both Teams to Score
92 shares @ 54.5¢·now 51.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$46.77
$-3.23
- YES
Will Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?
87 shares @ 28.8¢·now 27.5¢·exp May 17, 2026$23.83
$-1.17
- YES
Cody Gakpo: Anytime Goalscorer
32 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.02
$-9.98
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
721 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026?
621 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$0.00
$-8.07
- NO
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
600 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10?
264 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-134.55
- YES
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16?
224 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026$0.00
$-129.92
- YES
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-04-04?
202 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-70.56
- YES
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-09?
200 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLOllie Watkins: Anytime Goalscorer$27.74May 15, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLAston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5$180.59May 15, 20:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYAston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5$101.35May 15, 20:36 UTC
- TRADESELLAston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5$155.36May 15, 20:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYAston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 3.5$101.09May 15, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYOllie Watkins: Anytime Goalscorer$10.19May 15, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYCody Gakpo: Anytime Goalscorer$10.21May 15, 14:56 UTC
- TRADESELLMicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 12-18?$143.49May 15, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYFenerbahçe SK vs. Eyüpspor: Both Teams to Score$50.68May 15, 06:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Kasımpaşa SK vs. Galatasaray SK end in a draw?$25.53May 15, 06:26 UTC
- TRADESELLGirona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score$75.35May 14, 20:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 15?$6.21May 14, 12:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$22.07May 14, 12:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYGirona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: Both Teams to Score$43.55May 13, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14?$50.82May 13, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET$5.33May 13, 22:41 UTC
- TRADESELLSpread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)$74.92May 13, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-13?$97.93May 13, 22:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Celtic FC win on 2026-05-13?$84.65May 13, 21:24 UTC
- TRADESELLMotherwell FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 4.5$112.15May 13, 21:24 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $61.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 12, 13:35 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 22:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".