Trustworthy-Cycle
0x4d36b84ec4d760c4baa2e04acff60477b3fa111b
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$124.93
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$-61.28
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
824 shares @ 17.0¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$86.47
$-53.53
- YES
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?
571 shares @ 7.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.43
$-8.57
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?
741 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.04
$-39.69
- NO
Another India military strike on Pakistan by Friday?
3333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?
2207 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-140.50
- YES
US civil war before 2027?
1598 shares @ 11.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-180.98
- YES
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
488 shares @ 41.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-200.00
- YES
Will The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
358 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall in 2025?
333 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Billie Eilish have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
297 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO?$18.21May 30, 08:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zhang Mingyang win by KO or TKO?$101.21May 28, 03:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Finland win Eurovision 2026?$92.46May 16, 16:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moldova win Eurovision 2026?$18.40May 16, 16:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Greece win Eurovision 2026?$81.01May 16, 16:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moldova win Eurovision 2026?$5.21May 5, 10:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Moldova win Eurovision 2026?$25.28May 5, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Billie Eilish have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$5.00Apr 28, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$5.00Apr 28, 03:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$5.00Apr 28, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Billie Eilish have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$5.00Apr 28, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$5.00Apr 28, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill The Weeknd have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$5.00Apr 28, 03:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bruno Mars have the second-greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?$5.00Apr 28, 03:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?$36.26Apr 28, 02:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$0.00Apr 27, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET$3.00Apr 27, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET$5.00Apr 27, 03:26 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?$6.94Apr 27, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?$1.00Apr 15, 17:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $60.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 10, 15:39 UTC
- Last active
- May 30, 08:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".