Interesting-Havoc
0x4ebb04b6cb81590cd06284144b2f482f38ea525f
Wallet digest
Activity score
84/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
37
Open notional
$2.0K
Total PnL
$-2.0K
Realised
$290.66
Win rate
71%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- YES
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
1067 shares @ 86.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$890.92
$-26.67
- YES
Will Ty Masterson win the 2026 Kansas Governor Republican primary election?
800 shares @ 92.0¢·now 84.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$671.59
$-63.96
- ALEX DE MINAUR
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
180 shares @ 56.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$105.41
$4.50
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
211 shares @ 48.0¢·now 48.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$101.05
$0.00
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
144 shares @ 70.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$99.28
$-1.32
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
172 shares @ 58.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$52.58
$-47.41
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
268 shares @ 71.9¢·now 12.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$33.47
$-158.90
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
5 shares @ 60.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$3.90
$0.90
- YES
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.88
$0.86
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.61
$0.62
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$194.16Jul 29, 01:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$141.01Jul 28, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$41.88Jul 28, 17:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?$99.45Jul 28, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$25.91Jul 28, 16:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$69.00Jul 28, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$3.25Jul 28, 16:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$10.00Jul 28, 16:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYVancouver: Keegan Rice vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz$99.31Jul 28, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$9.91Jul 28, 15:52 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$10.14Jul 28, 15:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$126.50Jul 28, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$1.08Jul 28, 15:49 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$32.89Jul 28, 15:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$137.78Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill fewer than 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 20-July 26?$15.00Jul 28, 15:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?$116.75Jul 28, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds$72.42Jul 28, 15:38 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by July 31, 2026?$16.31Jul 28, 15:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$6.60Jul 28, 15:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
39/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $54.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 19:36 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 01:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.