All-Deviation
0x4fadc974fb701b133055866022c89c5e0f7a1480
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
193
Open notional
$7.9K
Total PnL
$-710.03
Realised
$134.42
Win rate
63%
91 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 193- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2650 shares @ 85.5¢·now 86.8¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.3K
$32.96
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2550 shares @ 43.4¢·now 49.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$1.3K
$156.63
- YES
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
1000 shares @ 78.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$884.96
$105.00
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
1000 shares @ 76.5¢·now 83.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$835.00
$70.00
- NO
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
1000 shares @ 84.0¢·now 81.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$810.50
$-29.50
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2616 shares @ 29.8¢·now 26.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$697.15
$-82.95
- NO
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
244 shares @ 92.1¢·now 98.2¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$239.30
$14.90
- NO
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
166 shares @ 82.6¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$143.82
$6.48
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?
60 shares @ 71.7¢·now 96.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$58.01
$14.79
- YES
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?
50 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$49.84
$7.26
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$1.93Jun 13, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$3.94Jun 12, 11:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$19.57Jun 12, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$73.76Jun 12, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.09Jun 12, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$16.18Jun 12, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$78.31Jun 12, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$13.05Jun 12, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$16.96Jun 12, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$14.82Jun 12, 11:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.73Jun 12, 11:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.61Jun 12, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$13.96Jun 12, 11:16 UTC
- REWARD$0.26Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$410.50Jun 9, 13:56 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.38Jun 6, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$20.49Jun 5, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$814.50Jun 5, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$336.40Jun 3, 22:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Harry Kane be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 Bundesliga season?$3.93Jun 3, 21:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $91.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 00:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 13, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 91 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.