Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?
Probability
19¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+0.5pp
24h Vol
$289.58
Liquidity
$21.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Thin liquidity
Only $21.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.1h
- 13:55SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 19¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 19¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 20¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 19¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 19¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 19¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 18¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 18¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 19¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 21¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 20¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 19¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 19¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a Justice of Brazil’s Supreme Federal Court for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Alexandre de Moraes's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Alexandre de Moraes and the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).