0x4fd320a2973d1aec459b720e399c3290ba546550
0x4fd320a2973d1aec459b720e399c3290ba546550
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$7.70
Total PnL
$-13.33
Realised
$-0.83
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?
8 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$7.70
$5.62
- NO
Will there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?
45 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.72
- NO
Will Google dip to $290 in March?
17 shares @ 25.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$0.00
$-4.25
- YES
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?
14 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-3.61
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
10 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?
8 shares @ 25.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.97
- NO
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?
4 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.29
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?
4 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.56
- YES
S&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.53
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$1.63Mar 10, 20:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? $2.68Mar 10, 20:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 all time high by March 31, 2026?$1.53Mar 10, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLFed rate cut by September 2026 meeting?$8.53Mar 10, 18:18 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?$5.20Mar 10, 17:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.18Mar 10, 13:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.40Mar 10, 12:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.29Mar 10, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March?$1.29Mar 10, 07:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$1.63Mar 10, 00:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?$1.56Mar 9, 22:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?$0.30Mar 9, 20:52 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$1.26Mar 9, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?$1.47Mar 9, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?$2.43Mar 9, 18:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Hryshyne by June 30, 2026?$3.34Mar 9, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google dip to $290 in March?$1.24Mar 9, 14:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.04Mar 9, 13:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.20Mar 9, 12:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 1450 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?$0.04Mar 9, 07:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 6, 04:29 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 10, 20:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.