Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30?

• 1

  Down 7pp over 24h

  Now 13¢; flat in the last hour.

• 2

  Thin liquidity

  Only $16.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom government formally designates the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." This includes designation as a proscribed terrorist group or organisation according to the UK Home Office, as well as the use of Royal Prerogative Powers or Orders in Council, legislation signed into law, or the creation of a new national designation that formally designates the IRGC as a terrorist organization. Statements by government officials, including the Prime Minister, Home Office, or National Crime Service, will not count unless accompanied by a formal designation. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting or official information from the UK Government.