Athletic-Screwup
0x5235578efe24555b0c98e7dc10a902b09089c04a
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$196.1K
Total PnL
$-95.8K
Realised
$-11.9K
Win rate
34%
139 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
91276 shares @ 52.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$91.0K
$43.1K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
89304 shares @ 86.4¢·now 87.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$78.1K
$1.0K
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
29062 shares @ 75.4¢·now 74.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$21.7K
$-253.80
- NO
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3249 shares @ 75.9¢·now 97.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.2K
$704.25
- NO
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?
609 shares @ 83.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$569.46
$58.18
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?
7912 shares @ 36.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$435.15
$-2.4K
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1079 shares @ 23.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$253.56
$5.39
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
2347 shares @ 16.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$222.97
$-151.94
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?
8609 shares @ 8.9¢·now 2.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$198.00
$-567.66
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
300 shares @ 45.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$190.50
$55.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$119.43Jul 28, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$119.43Jul 28, 16:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$18.06Jul 28, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$998.70Jul 28, 10:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$18.87Jul 28, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$824.40Jul 28, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$296.56Jul 28, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$50.32Jul 28, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$606.80Jul 28, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$296.00Jul 28, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$301.18Jul 28, 04:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$370.00Jul 28, 04:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.1KJul 28, 01:42 UTC
- YIELD$0.16Jul 28, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$907.28Jul 28, 00:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$159.10Jul 27, 17:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?$1.1KJul 27, 16:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$153.12Jul 27, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.2KJul 27, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$1.7KJul 27, 13:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
49/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
34% win rate over 139 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
139 closed markets, 34% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $682.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 20:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 17:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 139 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.