0x529d3986c62df484bf34400f655432c5703d6381
0x529d3986c62df484bf34400f655432c5703d6381
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
80
Open notional
$10.9K
Total PnL
$-27.00
Realised
$96.02
Win rate
65%
23 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 80- NO
GTA 6 launch postponed again?
1933 shares @ 73.2¢·now 89.0¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$1.7K
$305.07
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
1688 shares @ 89.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$32.96
- NO
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
1200 shares @ 69.1¢·now 69.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$828.57
$-1.00
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
2918 shares @ 23.5¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$744.12
$57.04
- NO
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
794 shares @ 82.2¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$667.06
$13.91
- YES
Another GTA VI trailer released by August 31?
700 shares @ 79.4¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$521.50
$-34.50
- NO
Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 79.5¢·now 84.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$419.95
$22.74
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
400 shares @ 81.5¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$370.00
$44.00
- NO
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
400 shares @ 79.5¢·now 84.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$338.00
$20.00
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
450 shares @ 60.1¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$281.25
$10.75
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$30.00Jul 29, 03:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?$3.27Jul 29, 02:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$2.08Jul 29, 02:27 UTC
- TRADESELLGoogle x SpaceX agree to put data centers in space by December 31?$3.01Jul 29, 02:13 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.88Jul 29, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.21Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$51.92Jul 29, 00:08 UTC
- REWARD$7.31Jul 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.33Jul 28, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$38.46Jul 28, 19:25 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$50.20Jul 28, 19:21 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$11.70Jul 28, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?$455.60Jul 28, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$125.98Jul 28, 18:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.81Jul 28, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$29.21Jul 28, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?$49.26Jul 28, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$4.94Jul 28, 15:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$2.00Jul 28, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$11.66Jul 28, 15:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 23 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
23 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $39.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 18:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 03:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 23 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.