Oval-Sight
0x52ba5a8f14087ccffa6ad55a3af0b9ef7c8ffec3
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
10
Open notional
$77.30
Total PnL
$-17.10
Realised
$0.79
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
48 shares @ 68.8¢·now 58.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$28.32
$-4.99
- NO
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by June 30, 2026?
20 shares @ 87.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$20.48
$2.48
- NO
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?
18 shares @ 72.5¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.54
$2.80
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?
8 shares @ 91.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$7.63
$0.63
- NO
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?
6 shares @ 86.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.32
$0.32
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
5 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
5 shares @ 95.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.79
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?
5 shares @ 87.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.35
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
2 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.25Apr 23, 04:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.00Apr 22, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00Apr 20, 16:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.25Apr 13, 19:47 UTC
- TRADESELLKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?$4.00Apr 7, 23:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the April Meeting?$5.76Apr 5, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?$4.35Apr 5, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?$4.00Apr 5, 02:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?$4.79Apr 4, 17:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 30?$2.00Apr 4, 16:43 UTC
- TRADESELLKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?$0.10Apr 3, 14:24 UTC
- TRADESELLKadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026?$3.70Apr 3, 07:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by April 15?$4.00Apr 1, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.30Apr 1, 16:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?$3.41Apr 1, 15:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$7.00Apr 1, 15:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Putin by March 31, 2026?$10.87Apr 1, 15:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$2.42Mar 28, 10:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.08Mar 28, 04:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$3.50Mar 26, 08:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $3.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 2, 15:28 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 23, 04:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.