0x54498e4c40b17261479aeaeeddf9cc37bd46992b
0x54498e4c40b17261479aeaeeddf9cc37bd46992b
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$6.0K
Total PnL
$499.34
Realised
$789.45
Win rate
58%
101 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
1946 shares @ 23.2¢·now 20.7¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$402.84
$-48.08
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
344 shares @ 89.1¢·now 90.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$311.00
$4.77
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
600 shares @ 81.8¢·now 49.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$296.84
$-193.71
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
313 shares @ 89.5¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$286.85
$6.15
- NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
315 shares @ 76.7¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$284.94
$43.49
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
386 shares @ 46.2¢·now 64.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$248.94
$70.45
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
317 shares @ 78.1¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$242.34
$-5.10
- NO
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
511 shares @ 77.6¢·now 46.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$237.83
$-159.20
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?
433 shares @ 35.3¢·now 38.5¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$166.71
$13.80
- NO
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?
194 shares @ 50.0¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$96.18
$-0.97
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$20.32Jul 31, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$1.10Jul 31, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:23 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$0.47Jul 31, 22:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$1.10Jul 31, 22:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$1.10Jul 31, 22:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
58% win rate over 101 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
101 closed markets, 58% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $2.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 21:49 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 22:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 101 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.