0x56a89027214d33acdbf23710a803152a936deea2
0x56a89027214d33acdbf23710a803152a936deea2
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$223.01
Total PnL
$-1.4K
Realised
$-140.25
Win rate
15%
72 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?
60 shares @ 3.8¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$50.70
$48.39
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
60 shares @ 20.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$48.89
$36.89
- YES
Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?
60 shares @ 20.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Sep 10, 2026$38.10
$26.10
- YES
Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?
50 shares @ 20.0¢·now 27.2¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$13.53
$3.56
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?
53 shares @ 14.3¢·now 25.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.45
$5.92
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
60 shares @ 20.0¢·now 17.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$10.71
$-1.29
- YES
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?
90 shares @ 14.3¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.05
$-8.81
- YES
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?
60 shares @ 14.3¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.73
$-5.84
- YES
Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
60 shares @ 50.0¢·now 4.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.52
$-27.48
- YES
Will Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%?
60 shares @ 16.7¢·now 4.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.43
$-7.57
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?$0.81Jul 7, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) close at $305-$310 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?$0.90Jul 7, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLReserve Bank of Australia decreases interest rates by 25 bps at the August 2026 meeting?$1.95Jul 7, 19:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$12.60Jul 7, 17:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill 7-8 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?$4.56Jul 7, 17:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?$15.24Jul 7, 13:25 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) close at $315-$320 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?$0.97Jul 7, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) close at $305-$310 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?$0.43Jul 7, 09:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple (AAPL) close at $310-$315 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?$3.12Jul 7, 08:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?$0.65Jul 6, 21:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?$0.61Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?$0.60Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be less than -2.4%?$0.62Jul 6, 19:28 UTC
- CONVERSIONApple (AAPL) closes week of Jul 6 at ___?$30.00Jul 6, 18:00 UTC
- SPLITWill Apple (AAPL) close at <$285 on the final day of trading of the week of Jul 6 – Jul 10?$30.00Jul 6, 18:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill General Mills Q4 organic net sales growth be between 0% and 1.5%?$43.29Jul 6, 17:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026?$0.17Jul 6, 17:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision?$39.08Jul 6, 17:44 UTC
- CONVERSIONJune Inflation UK - Annual$30.00Jul 6, 15:33 UTC
- SPLITWill UK annual inflation be 2.1% or less in June?$30.00Jul 6, 15:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 72 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.
72 closed markets, 15% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $4.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 2, 08:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 7, 21:59 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 72 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.