Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2026?
Probability
16¢
1h
-0.1pp
24h
+9.4pp
24h Vol
$44.32
Liquidity
$1.9K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.3pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 9pp over 24h
Now 16¢; -0.1pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 4.9¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.4h
- 13:37SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.7pp
to 16¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.8pp
to 16¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.1pp
to 16¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 9.5pp
to 17¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.9pp
to 17¢
- 22:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 10¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.7pp
to 10¢
- 19:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.4pp
to 10¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.8pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.6pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.4pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.4pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.3pp
to 7¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.9pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.8pp
to 7¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.4pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.3pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.1pp
to 8¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.3pp
to 9¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.7pp
to 8¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ETAmbiguous wordingextracted · low
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (4.9¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).