0x57e70e9a15a47b31fd89c1a9fe3d4d11401984e9
0x57e70e9a15a47b31fd89c1a9fe3d4d11401984e9
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.8K
Total PnL
$-8.9K
Realised
$886.89
Win rate
33%
121 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
736 shares @ 31.3¢·now 73.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$540.62
$310.12
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
549 shares @ 74.9¢·now 83.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$458.50
$47.25
- NO
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?
387 shares @ 84.2¢·now 96.6¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$373.58
$47.90
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
269 shares @ 65.0¢·now 82.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$221.60
$46.87
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
298 shares @ 67.6¢·now 70.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$210.12
$8.56
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
198 shares @ 94.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$196.65
$9.55
- NO
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
480 shares @ 37.0¢·now 37.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$179.93
$2.40
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
441 shares @ 53.1¢·now 34.5¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$152.03
$-81.89
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
146 shares @ 68.4¢·now 96.8¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$141.00
$41.37
- YES
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
285 shares @ 51.2¢·now 49.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$139.43
$-6.42
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?$11.07Aug 23, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?$7.31Aug 23, 01:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 23, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?$49.75Aug 22, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?$9.61Aug 22, 15:32 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?$30.53Aug 22, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?$27.25Aug 22, 11:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$36.77Aug 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.18Aug 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$10.28Aug 22, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.07Aug 22, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$25.84Aug 22, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$4.11Aug 22, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$45.04Aug 22, 08:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by end of 2026?$2.73Aug 22, 03:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 22, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$96.18Aug 21, 17:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?$77.76Aug 21, 15:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$40.04Aug 21, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.48Aug 21, 13:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 121 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
121 closed markets, 33% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $16.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 20, 18:11 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 23, 11:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 121 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.