Shimmering-Corruption
0x5968454ab9fa39745d5d4adf78f23b80ebe53fc4
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$8.1K
Total PnL
$-276.82
Realised
$26.91
Win rate
54%
99 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
411 shares @ 58.0¢·now 76.4¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$314.26
$75.68
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
458 shares @ 54.9¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$203.81
$-47.71
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
168 shares @ 91.1¢·now 96.8¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$162.62
$9.53
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
157 shares @ 89.7¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$157.20
$16.02
- NO
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
161 shares @ 93.2¢·now 97.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$156.90
$6.92
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
130 shares @ 49.6¢·now 97.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$127.29
$62.62
- NO
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?
119 shares @ 91.3¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$117.64
$8.96
- NO
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
125 shares @ 87.8¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$116.90
$7.14
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
155 shares @ 53.1¢·now 74.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$115.47
$33.20
- NO
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?
123 shares @ 63.7¢·now 89.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$109.59
$31.18
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMubadala Citi DC Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Learner Tien$2.81Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$6.24Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Knokke-Heist: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Justina Mikulskyte$0.05Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Knokke-Heist: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Justina Mikulskyte$2.42Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Knokke-Heist: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Justina Mikulskyte$1.18Jul 28, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYFC Drita vs. Floriana FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5$4.67Jul 28, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Knokke-Heist: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Justina Mikulskyte$3.60Jul 28, 18:30 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Knokke-Heist: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Justina Mikulskyte$3.00Jul 28, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$4.62Jul 28, 18:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Knokke-Heist: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Justina Mikulskyte$3.01Jul 28, 18:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rīga FC win on 2026-07-28?$0.11Jul 28, 18:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rīga FC win on 2026-07-28?$4.55Jul 28, 18:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rīga FC win on 2026-07-28?$4.53Jul 28, 18:26 UTC
- TRADESELLGNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: Team to Advance$0.35Jul 28, 18:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYGNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: Team to Advance$0.35Jul 28, 18:25 UTC
- TRADESELLITF Huamantla: Rafael De Alba vs Gray Voelzke$1.55Jul 28, 18:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Huamantla: Rafael De Alba vs Gray Voelzke$1.19Jul 28, 18:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in July?$1.65Jul 28, 18:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rīga FC win on 2026-07-28?$0.04Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rīga FC win on 2026-07-28?$3.10Jul 28, 18:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 99 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
99 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $2.07
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 18:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 99 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.