Vigilant-Congressperson
0x5b1d577f26af007689b8b2f58763dafb89b88895
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
83
Open notional
$2.6K
Total PnL
$238.74
Realised
$180.77
Win rate
67%
52 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 83- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
191 shares @ 77.8¢·now 77.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$147.80
$-0.48
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?
122 shares @ 84.9¢·now 93.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$114.32
$10.53
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
459 shares @ 26.3¢·now 23.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$107.26
$-13.75
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
127 shares @ 76.5¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$102.65
$5.16
- NO
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026?
107 shares @ 91.5¢·now 95.3¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$102.09
$4.12
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
408 shares @ 24.3¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$96.14
$-3.15
- NO
Iran leadership change by December 31?
96 shares @ 76.5¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.97
$2.84
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
84 shares @ 88.8¢·now 86.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$72.47
$-1.98
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
125 shares @ 58.2¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$71.93
$-0.83
- YES
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?
88 shares @ 79.7¢·now 80.7¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$71.09
$0.84
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?$4.90Jul 28, 21:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$2.99Jul 28, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.11Jul 28, 19:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.77Jul 28, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.04Jul 28, 18:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$23.28Jul 28, 18:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$13.68Jul 28, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$10.16Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$11.89Jul 28, 18:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$32.08Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?$15.92Jul 28, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.13Jul 28, 17:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$7.37Jul 28, 17:18 UTC
- TRADESELLIran full airspace closure by July 31?$2.31Jul 28, 16:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$6.96Jul 28, 16:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?$10.10Jul 28, 16:19 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by September 30?$4.79Jul 28, 16:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by September 30?$1.54Jul 28, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$12.62Jul 28, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?$1.67Jul 28, 12:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
78/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 52 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
52 closed markets, 67% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $8.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 16:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 52 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.