Advanced-Apprehension
0x5d1c0e7ec9ef13fcaf08241b604d10f727154d4d
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
43
Open notional
$1.2K
Total PnL
$-207.2K
Realised
$-2.4K
Win rate
29%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 43- YES
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
476 shares @ 37.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$476.00
$297.28
- NO
French election called by June 30, 2026?
381 shares @ 73.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$381.35
$99.79
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
211 shares @ 66.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$117.11
$-22.16
- YES
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
100 shares @ 77.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$85.50
$8.50
- YES
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House
100 shares @ 45.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$41.50
$-3.50
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
36 shares @ 70.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$28.08
$2.88
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
30 shares @ 44.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$19.05
$5.65
- YES
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
11 shares @ 70.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$8.86
$1.16
- YES
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
29 shares @ 40.3¢·now 23.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$6.95
$-4.74
- YES
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?
124055 shares @ 72.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-89.3K
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.