0x5e4951177edd041650b66815219f64a00956a4f4
0x5e4951177edd041650b66815219f64a00956a4f4
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$43.98
Total PnL
$290.47
Realised
$303.22
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
12 shares @ 59.0¢·now 75.6¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$8.98
$1.98
- YES
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
140 shares @ 3.6¢·now 2.1¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$2.86
$-2.17
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
6 shares @ 31.5¢·now 33.3¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$2.11
$0.11
- YES
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 43.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.98
$0.98
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
500 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.25
$-0.75
- NO
Will summer 2026 be France's hottest summer on record?
32 shares @ 7.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Oct 1, 2026$1.22
$-0.99
- NO
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?
2 shares @ 61.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.20
$0.20
- NO
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 96.2¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- YES
New pandemic in 2026?
18 shares @ 7.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.27
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,500 in August?$1.85Aug 19, 21:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYGTA VI released before November 2026?$1.05Aug 19, 13:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GTA 6 cost $100+?$1.05Aug 19, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2027?$1.00Aug 18, 17:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia by August 31, 2026?$1.00Aug 18, 17:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?$1.04Aug 18, 17:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US crude oil reserves fall to 255M by August 31?$1.05Aug 18, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill US crude oil reserves fall to 285M by August 31?$1.04Aug 18, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?$1.04Aug 18, 17:08 UTC
- REDEEMWTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 17?$2.00Aug 17, 23:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?$1.52Aug 17, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Warren Buffett be richest person on December 31?$1.05Aug 17, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jensen Huang be richest person on December 31?$1.05Aug 17, 14:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.05Aug 17, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.05Aug 17, 14:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.05Aug 17, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.05Aug 17, 14:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?$1.04Aug 16, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?$1.03Aug 16, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30?$1.00Aug 16, 19:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $1.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 13, 19:07 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 21:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.