Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?
Probability
12¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-11.0pp
24h Vol
$653.16
Liquidity
$610.18
Canonical status
confidence: mediumSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Liquidity is below $1,000 — price discovery is unreliable.
The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Probability (last 7 days)
-4.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 01Price move
Down 11pp over 24h
Now 12¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $610 of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Set an alert if probability recovers above 17¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 30, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
Liquidity is thin enough that movement can be noisy. Verify source context before reading the move as information.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? State: Illiquid — liquidity sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026? State: liquidity sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Sep 30, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 1004.1h
Price movement
-11.0pp over the last 24h, now 12¢.
Biggest hourly move: -20.0pp at Aug 17, 10:00 UTC (to 15¢).
Show top 8 of 57 hourly moves
- Aug 18, 16:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 28¢
- Aug 18, 09:00 UTC · +11.5pp → 36¢
- Aug 17, 15:00 UTC · -18.5pp → 18¢
- Aug 17, 12:00 UTC · -19.5pp → 15¢
- Aug 17, 11:00 UTC · -18.0pp → 15¢
- Aug 17, 10:00 UTC · -20.0pp → 15¢
- Aug 16, 17:00 UTC · +12.5pp → 29¢
- Aug 16, 16:00 UTC · +16.0pp → 33¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
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Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?
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Will the Rhine River fail to return to normal levels by November 1, 2026?
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Market Description
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market. "Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Why this category?
confidence: lowCategory
Source
Reason
No override, sports marker, rule, or upstream hint matched. Market is unclassified — the keyword rules need an entry for this topic.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between September 15 and September 30, 2026?"?
As of Thu, 20 Aug 2026 03:55:02 GMT, YES is priced at 12% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -11.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -4.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Sep 30, 2026 (2026-09-30T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$653.16 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $1.4K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $610.18. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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