Acceptable-Blow
0x5e9d7681b21be41cdd76ef61dbfe4ee1f17b44ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
90/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
11
Open notional
$58.49
Total PnL
$7.49
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 11- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
30 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$30.34
$3.34
- NO
Megaquake by June 30?
8 shares @ 64.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.81
$2.81
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
5 shares @ 57.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.95
$0.95
- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
3 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.39
$1.39
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.60
$0.60
- NO
Megaquake by March 31?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.56
$0.56
- NO
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.33
$0.33
- YES
Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition
2 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$2.25
$0.25
- NO
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau engaged by end of 2026?
3 shares @ 75.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.97
$-0.03
- YES
Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?
4 shares @ 48.0¢·now 17.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.71
$-1.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran ceasefire by March 31?$27.00Mar 23, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMNothing Ever Happens: Khamenei$0.00Mar 22, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Mar 22, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 70% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.00Feb 11, 10:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Benchmark by?$0.00Feb 11, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?$0.00Feb 11, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?$0.00Feb 11, 10:41 UTC
- REDEEMMegaquake by January 31?$2.13Feb 11, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$3.64Feb 11, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open?$5.88Feb 11, 10:40 UTC
- REDEEMBody-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?$11.11Feb 11, 10:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYKylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?$2.00Jan 18, 19:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?$2.00Jan 18, 19:50 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?$0.24Jan 13, 14:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?$0.00Jan 12, 14:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?$2.00Jan 12, 08:52 UTC
- REDEEMMaduro mugshot released by January 9?$10.41Jan 12, 08:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMaduro mugshot released by January 9?$7.16Jan 8, 20:35 UTC
- TRADESELLLuigi Mangione tried before 2027?$2.82Jan 8, 20:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBill Clinton divorce by June 30?$1.43Jan 7, 16:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $3.46
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 25, 18:47 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 23, 04:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.