Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?
Probability
33¢
1h
+5.5pp
24h
+7.0pp
24h Vol
$75.13
Liquidity
$1.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+7.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 7pp over 24h
Now 33¢; +5.5pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 22.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5983.0h
- 16:59SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5983h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 16:58PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 33¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 28¢
- 07:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 35¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 27¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.5pp
to 34¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 25¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 26¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Kylie Jenner is engaged to be married to Timothée Chalamet by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it is announced that Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet have married, it will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Kylie Jenner and/or Timothée Chalamet or one of their representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (22.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
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