Luigi Mangione tried before 2027?
Probability
80¢
1h
-4.0pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$1.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 80¢; -4.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 28.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5985.2h
- 14:46SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5985h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 14:46PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 80¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 84¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if trial proceedings for any case against Luigi Mangione are begun by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Once the jury is empaneled and sworn in, trial proceedings will be considered to have begun in a qualifying case. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (28.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).