Spectacular-Markup
0x6218778eeed82a49ca459573f61e6190252ef344
Wallet digest
Activity score
74/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
30
Open notional
$72.23
Total PnL
$-689.19
Realised
$3.09
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 30- NO
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
78 shares @ 38.4¢·now 21.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$16.43
$-13.57
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
81 shares @ 7.4¢·now 11.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.42
$3.42
- YES
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1418 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.7¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.22
$-16.78
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
37 shares @ 29.7¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.71
$-2.29
- YES
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
393 shares @ 5.3¢·now 2.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$8.06
$-12.94
- NO
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
16 shares @ 74.7¢·now 38.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$6.18
$-5.82
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
56 shares @ 26.1¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.79
$-9.92
- YES
Will Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
1814 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.53
$-52.37
- YES
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 49.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.55
$-7.45
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
54 shares @ 7.4¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.08
$-1.92
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Michelle Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.67Jun 24, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.20Jun 22, 23:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.19Jun 22, 23:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?$11.85Jun 22, 23:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$3.12Jun 14, 21:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$5.20Jun 14, 05:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?$30.36Jun 14, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?$101.20Jun 14, 02:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?$30.92Jun 14, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?$51.32Jun 14, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?$101.20Jun 14, 02:36 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?$1.00Jun 14, 02:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?$5.01Jun 14, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLFlávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30?$5.39Jun 14, 02:33 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$11.20Jun 14, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?$101.20Jun 14, 02:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30?$101.23Jun 14, 01:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?$154.79Jun 12, 17:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.98Jun 12, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Romeu Zema finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.04Jun 12, 02:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $26.79
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 02:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 03:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.