Pertinent-Asterisk
0x626c35e072f3601977f449bcccf9b502d7458c43
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
3
Open notional
$35.58
Total PnL
$-42.87
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Sam Altman in jail by June 30?
33 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$33.07
$0.40
- YES
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
15 shares @ 93.7¢·now 16.7¢·exp Nov 23, 2025$2.51
$-11.59
- YES
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
33 shares @ 95.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-31.68
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$0.00May 4, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election?$5.03May 4, 20:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Audemars Piguet Index hit $42,250 (HIGH) by April 30?$4.01May 4, 03:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% in April?$5.05May 1, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April?$1.21May 1, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30?$5.05May 1, 07:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?$4.02May 1, 07:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$4.03Apr 30, 20:37 UTC
- REDEEMNo change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s April 2026 meeting?$5.05Apr 30, 02:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill no one dissent the April Fed decision?$5.00Apr 29, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Team Heretics Academy vs FALKE Esports - Game 1 Winner$4.04Apr 29, 19:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026?$5.04Apr 29, 19:41 UTC
- TRADESELLMadrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Cameron Norrie$4.00Apr 28, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the #3 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?$3.92Apr 28, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Vovchansk by April 30?$3.92Apr 28, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Huliaipilske by April 30?$4.80Apr 28, 03:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $2,250 on April 27?$7.84Apr 28, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ethereum dip to $2,250 on April 27?$2.06Apr 28, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump talk to Maria Corina Machado in April?$1.17Apr 28, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% in April?$4.90Apr 28, 00:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $4.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 27, 02:40 UTC
- Last active
- May 4, 20:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.