Will Trump’s approval rating fall to 38.5% in April?

1. 1

   Down 9pp over 24h

   Now 26¢; +2.5pp in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 103h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $3.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between April 8 and April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for April 30 is not published by May 4, 2026, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.