0x6910d1b22e91c808066fd4e1b35d283301a89f9f
0x6910d1b22e91c808066fd4e1b35d283301a89f9f
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$62.74
Total PnL
$-253.31
Realised
$-31.66
Win rate
22%
18 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- YES
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?
22 shares @ 4.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$22.00
$21.02
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
16 shares @ 22.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$16.00
$12.34
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
14 shares @ 61.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$14.00
$5.33
- YES
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
8 shares @ 62.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.00
$2.98
- NO
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?
2 shares @ 81.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$2.00
$0.36
- YES
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
109 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.60
$-0.27
- YES
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
19 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.07
$-0.10
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
12 shares @ 9.3¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.07
$-1.06
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?
4 shares @ 28.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.01
$-1.12
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
3557 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-22.61
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$6.00Jul 20, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?$6.00Jul 20, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMRussia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI?$7.00Jul 20, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$20.00Jul 20, 17:06 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$32.00Jul 20, 17:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$1.43Jul 14, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$3.92Jul 14, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before GTA VI?$13.37Jul 14, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$6.29Jul 14, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump out as President before GTA VI?$7.31Jul 14, 15:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$13.65Jul 14, 14:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invades Taiwan before GTA VI?$11.21Jul 14, 14:36 UTC
- TRADESELLNew Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?$22.44Jul 14, 14:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.08Jul 14, 14:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?$29.51Jul 14, 14:25 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 21, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 20, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 18, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 17, 00:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 18 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
10 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
18 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 10
- Avg trade size
- $11.12
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 6, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 17:06 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 18 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.