Poised-Bet
0x698aa64f0392f63c3d5aeae03bb2309b2c0afe0d
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$4.1K
Total PnL
$-3.6K
Realised
$-1.9K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
4000 shares @ 72.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$3.0K
$121.60
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1500 shares @ 45.2¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$644.23
$-34.24
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
500 shares @ 52.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$347.45
$87.45
- YES
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2000 shares @ 2.3¢·now 2.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$50.80
$3.80
- YES
Will Coingecko be acquired in 2026?
40 shares @ 34.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$13.20
$-0.40
- YES
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.50
$0.50
- NO
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?
2000 shares @ 94.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-1.9K
- NO
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200?
60 shares @ 38.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-23.02
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.06Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.25Jul 25, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$260.00Jul 24, 15:06 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 20:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 21, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 16, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 13, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.06Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
10 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 10
- Avg trade size
- $66.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.