Gray-Transaction
0x69e7ad68b5f11e97927e4bd938baf7dfb60bd3b0
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
126
Open notional
$64.8K
Total PnL
$-134.5K
Realised
$49.2K
Win rate
33%
24 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 126- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
30371 shares @ 97.1¢·now 99.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$30.1K
$632.28
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
13968 shares @ 62.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$10.4K
$1.7K
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
10272 shares @ 61.5¢·now 68.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.0K
$683.86
- YES
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
8000 shares @ 72.9¢·now 87.4¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$7.0K
$1.2K
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
5884 shares @ 54.0¢·now 69.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$4.1K
$882.64
- NO
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 90.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.7K
$1.2K
- YES
Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
3300 shares @ 54.0¢·now 52.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.7K
$-50.52
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
1445 shares @ 60.3¢·now 69.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.0K
$132.51
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
8000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 9.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$740.00
$-3.3K
- NO
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
55 shares @ 81.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$49.05
$4.16
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.31Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Aug 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Aug 15, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.31Aug 14, 00:14 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$8.84Aug 13, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.46Aug 13, 00:16 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$4.61Aug 13, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$1.7KAug 12, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$8.11Aug 12, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$6.32Aug 12, 08:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$4.92Aug 12, 08:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$6.20Aug 12, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$2.61Aug 12, 08:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$122.66Aug 12, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?$163.15Aug 12, 08:19 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$4.5KAug 12, 08:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill annual inflation be 3.2% in July?$60.36Aug 12, 08:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$6.9KAug 12, 08:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.71Aug 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.71Aug 11, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 24 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
26 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 26
- Avg trade size
- $748.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 3, 12:35 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 24 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.