Envious-Gap
0x6d5f5eb5990bc95b5852f9d0c7e01661923ce1ad
Wallet digest
Activity score
57/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$123.32
Total PnL
$-130.13
Realised
$-14.29
Win rate
15%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- NO
Christopher Luxon out by September 30?
87 shares @ 97.7¢·now 91.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$79.61
$-5.39
- YES
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
50 shares @ 14.1¢·now 14.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$7.43
$0.38
- YES
Will National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
11 shares @ 47.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$4.89
$-0.11
- YES
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
100 shares @ 5.3¢·now 4.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.85
$-0.45
- YES
Will Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
11 shares @ 45.0¢·now 41.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2026$4.61
$-0.39
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?
31 shares @ 16.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$4.22
$-0.78
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
69 shares @ 10.2¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.78
$-3.22
- YES
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
11 shares @ 38.0¢·now 29.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.05
$-0.95
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
120 shares @ 2.5¢·now 2.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.70
$-0.30
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
11 shares @ 65.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.78
$-5.22
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?$6.67Aug 12, 21:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYChristopher Luxon out by September 30?$5.01Aug 12, 01:05 UTC
- TRADESELLChristopher Luxon out by September 30?$0.23Aug 12, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYChristopher Luxon out by September 30?$80.06Aug 12, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYChristopher Luxon out by September 30?$6.12Aug 11, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Labour Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$5.11Aug 11, 10:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill National Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?$5.11Aug 11, 10:36 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 7, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$5.30Aug 4, 19:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$7.29Jul 28, 10:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?$105.26Jul 27, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Thune announce a presidential run before 2027?$2.07Jul 25, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.00Jul 25, 09:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.04Jul 25, 09:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?$15.06Jul 25, 09:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron's next contract average under $4M per year?$5.17Jul 24, 01:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?$4.20Jul 24, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?$6.28Jul 23, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$2.92Jul 23, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLNBA: LeBron James and Bronny James Jr. to Play Together in 2026-27?$3.84Jul 23, 09:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
30/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
15% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
35 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 54/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $8.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 12, 21:50 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.